Marc AndreessenEntrepreneur and investor · Netscape, a16z
”Is the future knowable, and by whom? All pundits and commentators should publish their prediction track records, yet don't.”
Expert Political Judgment
How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Philip E. Tetlock · 2005 · 476 pages
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About the book
Philip Tetlock examines the accuracy of political predictions made by experts, questioning whether they can truly foresee future events better than laypeople or simple statistical methods. Based on two decades of rigorous research, the book analyzes the cognitive errors that affect the judgment of analysts and politicians.
Tetlock develops innovative metrics for measuring forecasting quality and identifies the characteristics of good forecasters. An essential work for understanding the limits of expertise and the importance of probabilistic thinking in politics and decision-making.
Book details
| Author | Philip E. Tetlock |
|---|---|
| Year of publication | 2005 |
| Pages | 476 |
Recommended by 3 people
Michael MauboussinStrategist and author · Santa Fe Institute, Morgan Stanley
”I feel the same sense of revelation as when I read "Expert Political Judgment: by @PTetlock.”
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